tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:35 am at San Diego); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 764 at 22:15 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–30%.

Safest bet today DL 764 SAN 22:15 → DTW 05:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2172 SAN 14:40 → DTW 22:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
DL 764 Delta Flight history → SAN 22:15 DTW 05:43 16% 4% 0.9% 90%
DL 492 Delta Flight history → SAN 11:37 DTW 19:10 26% 5% 0.2% 79%
DL 1900 Delta SAN 14:37 DTW 22:01 28% 6% 0.2% no record
DL 2172 Delta Flight history → SAN 14:40 DTW 22:15 30% 5% 0.2% 84%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 6h 29m 82% 66%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:10 → MDW 18:10WN 4163 1h 25m Chicago MDW 19:35 → DTW 21:45WN 2746 6h 35m 89% 63%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:46 → PHX 14:16AA 2477 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 15:30 → DTW 22:21AA 3140 6h 35m 81% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON