Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:54 am at San Diego)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3498 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:10	ELP 23:05	33%	9%	0.6%	24%
WN 254 Southwest	SAN 19:45	ELP 22:41	34%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:40UA 2165	1h 18m Houston	IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa	6h 49m	93%	79%
Southwest Details →	SAN 08:00 → PHX 09:20WN 3524	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 11:45 → ELP 14:08WN 294	5h 08m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097	2h 47m Dallas	DAL 21:52 → ELP 22:43WN 1361	7h 48m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 21:55 → ELP 00:45 +1WN 4340	5h 40m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	SAN 11:05 → LAS 12:30WN 3507	2h 37m Las Vegas	LAS 15:07 → ELP 17:56WN 1204	5h 51m	100%	72%
American Details →	SAN 12:46 → PHX 14:16AA 2477	1h 44m Phoenix	PHX 16:00 → ELP 18:23AA 3874 · flown by Envoy	4h 37m	89%	70%
Southwest Details →	SAN 19:00 → LAS 20:25WN 4160	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → ELP 01:04 +1WN 4563	5h 04m	91%	69%
Southwest Details →	SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3497	2h 35m Denver	DEN 20:55 → ELP 22:50WN 1319	6h 55m	96%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 10:09 → SEA 13:13AS 1477	55m Seattle	SEA 14:08 → ELP 18:36AS 2191 · flown by Horizon	7h 27m	49%	29%
Southwest Details →	SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212	50m Houston	HOU 22:35 → ELP 23:35WN 2043	6h 10m	44%	28%
Southwest Details →	SAN 12:55 → LAS 14:20WN 2183	47m Las Vegas	LAS 15:07 → ELP 17:56WN 1204	4h 01m	38%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON