Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 59%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3319 at 19:16, 53%.

Safest bet today AS 3319 SAN 19:16 → EUG 21:46 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest QX 2134 SAN 13:14 → EUG 15:10 · 68% chance 15+ min late

Weather 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3319 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:16	EUG 21:46	53%	20%	2.2%	78%worse than usual
WN 1771 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:45	EUG 18:05	54%	23%	0.8%	54%
QX 2149 Horizon	SAN 19:17	EUG 21:51	61%	34%	3.9%	no record
QX 2134 Horizon	SAN 13:14	EUG 15:10	68%	27%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON