Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2381 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2381 SAN 06:40 → EWR 15:18 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 327 SAN 13:30 → EWR 22:07 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2381 United Flight history →	SAN 06:40	EWR 15:18	15%	4%	0.8%	80%
UA 1637 United	SAN 06:30	EWR 14:31	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 427 United Flight history →	SAN 22:30	EWR 06:53	16%	4%	0.8%	84%
AS 297 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:55	EWR 16:36	25%	5%	1.2%	81%
UA 1827 United Flight history →	SAN 14:24	EWR 22:59	33%	13%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 13:30	EWR 22:07	36%	13%	0.8%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006	59m Los Angeles	LAX 08:20 → EWR 16:45UA 2096	7h 25m	89%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON