Today: WN 3464 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet today WN 3464 SAN 08:30 → FAT 09:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 3051 SAN 19:03 → FAT 20:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3464 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:30	FAT 09:55	10%	3%	0.2%	98%
WN 704 Southwest	SAN 08:32	FAT 09:54	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:38	FAT 11:04	18%	6%	0.3%	83%
OO 3021 SkyWest	SAN 17:00	FAT 18:26	26%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 948 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:45	FAT 23:10	28%	9%	0.7%	55%
WN 3644 Southwest	SAN 21:15	FAT 22:37	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 3133 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:58	FAT 19:21	31%	12%	1.2%	67%
AS 3389 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:19	FAT 15:42	31%	9%	0.3%	66%
OO 847 SkyWest	SAN 22:19	FAT 23:46	33%	9%	1.2%	no record
AS 3472 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 21:57	FAT 23:22	33%	10%	1.2%	75%
OO 3051 SkyWest	SAN 19:03	FAT 20:30	35%	12%	1.3%	no record
AS 2208 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:44	FAT 10:05	22%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON