Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: WN 4965 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet today WN 4965 SAN 11:10 → HOU 16:20 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3212 SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4965 Southwest	SAN 11:10	HOU 16:20	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4947 Southwest	SAN 19:35	HOU 00:52	32%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4505 Southwest	SAN 14:25	HOU 19:35	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3212 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:25	HOU 21:45	37%	9%	0.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON