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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4225 Southwest SAN 12:50 IND 19:45 32% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3505 Southwest Flight history → SAN 13:35 IND 20:35 37% 8% 0.6% 62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:40 → ORD 13:09UA 1069 3h 35m Chicago ORD 16:44 → IND 19:01UA 3418 · flown by Republic 9h 21m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 12m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 8h 30m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456 9h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10DL 861 6h 55m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674 9h 28m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → IND 17:22DL 3126 8h 07m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 21m Denver DEN 13:29 → IND 18:07UA 1228 8h 32m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3497 55m Denver DEN 19:15 → IND 23:50WN 1211 5h 55m 60% 46%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:01 → IND 19:11AA 1413 6h 21m 52% 36%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:44UA 1980 51m Houston IAH 16:35 → IND 20:03UA 6132 · flown by Mesa 6h 50m 41% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON