tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:39 am at San Diego)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: DL 709 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 11%.

Safest bet today DL 709 SAN 21:55 → JFK 06:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 190 SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time
Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 709 Delta Flight history → SAN 21:55 JFK 06:23 11% 3% 1.0% 87%
AS 24 Alaska Flight history → SAN 07:00 JFK 15:49 11% 3% 0.6% 89%
DL 367 Delta Flight history → SAN 07:29 JFK 16:19 11% 3% 0.3% 87%
AS 36 Alaska Flight history → SAN 14:15 JFK 22:56 25% 6% 0.7% 80%
DL 683 Delta Flight history → SAN 13:05 JFK 22:04 26% 6% 0.4% 76%
B6 1190 JetBlue Flight history → SAN 20:30 JFK 05:04 30% 8% 1.3% 88%worse than usual
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history → SAN 11:51 JFK 20:30 33% 10% 1.0% 81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SAN 19:17 → SLC 22:17DL 1252 1h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705 8h 01m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 09:06 → JFK 17:08DL 934 7h 53m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 1h 21m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689 8h 08m 92% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON