Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2667 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2667 SAN 06:03 → LAX 06:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4087 SAN 19:58 → LAX 21:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2667 United	SAN 06:03	LAX 06:57	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3743 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 06:15	LAX 07:35	9%	4%	0.6%	95%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	SAN 06:20	LAX 07:21	10%	5%	0.5%	96%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:54	LAX 12:11	13%	7%	0.7%	91%
UA 5384 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:49	LAX 11:58	14%	7%	0.7%	91%
UA 5636 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 20:32	LAX 21:45	21%	9%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
DL 4002 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:00	LAX 16:04	22%	10%	0.7%	73%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:58	LAX 21:13	22%	9%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON