Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AS 707 at 21:06, 18%.

Safest bet that day AS 707 SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 3692 SAN 12:30 → MCO 20:11 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 707 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:06	MCO 05:18	18%	4%	1.6%	87%
WN 4236 Southwest	SAN 08:35	MCO 16:16	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4874 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:55	MCO 05:55	22%	6%	1.0%	70%
WN 4162 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:30	MCO 16:35	25%	5%	1.2%	76%
AS 396 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:03	MCO 18:17	33%	8%	1.8%	73%
WN 3692 Southwest	SAN 12:30	MCO 20:11	35%	10%	1.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625	56m Phoenix	PHX 08:50 → MCO 16:20AA 2105	7h 00m	85%	62%
Southwest Details →	SAN 08:10 → DAL 13:15WN 4751	1h 18m Dallas	DAL 14:33 → MCO 18:09WN 4247	6h 59m	94%	58%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	1h 01m Houston	IAH 18:26 → MCO 21:58UA 2451	7h 00m	77%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON