Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: WN 3513 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–33%.

Safest bet today WN 3513 SAN 06:30 → MDW 12:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 2395 SAN 18:45 → MDW 00:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3513 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:30	MDW 12:35	8%	1%	0.2%	84%
WN 4237 Southwest	SAN 06:16	MDW 12:16	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 257 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 22:40	MDW 04:40	15%	4%	0.7%	92%
WN 4163 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:10	MDW 18:10	22%	5%	0.7%	50%
WN 1252 Southwest	SAN 11:55	MDW 17:53	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3448 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:30	MDW 23:30	33%	9%	0.7%	50%
WN 2395 Southwest	SAN 18:45	MDW 00:44	33%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON