Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:41 am at San Diego)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3206 at 20:01, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3206 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 20:01	MFR 22:20	39%	9%	1.2%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	96%	91%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399	1h 11m Portland	PDX 10:40 → MFR 11:53AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	94%	84%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:21 → SEA 14:25AS 475	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 52m	100%	84%
United Details →	SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	6h 30m	94%	82%
Alaska Details →	SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	6h 29m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	95%	79%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:18 → SEA 09:19AS 1473	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → MFR 12:50AS 3088 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	88%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508	55m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	61%	53%
Alaska Details →	SAN 07:18 → SEA 10:26AS 512	54m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → MFR 12:50AS 3088 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	36%	31%
Alaska Details →	SAN 13:59 → SEA 16:58AS 465	49m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	5h 14m	14%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON