Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:01 pm at San Diego); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51% (calm day: 35%). Best bet: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:15, 32% on time.

Nonstops today


AA 1802 American	SAN 22:14	MIA 06:14	26%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 1480 American Flight history →	SAN 22:25	MIA 06:36	28%	6%	0.3%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	10h 12m	97%	81%
American Details →	SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466	2h 21m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654	8h 13m	86%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 19:41 → SFO 21:28UA 2278	1h 26m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	8h 58m	65%	54%
American Details →	SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205	7h 07m	53%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON