Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:12 pm at San Diego); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3005 at 22:26, 39%.

Nonstops today


AS 3005 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 22:26	MRY 23:58	39%	17%	3.1%	76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	2h 33m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → MRY 23:47UA 5670 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	95%	58%
American Details →	SAN 16:23 → PHX 17:49AA 2470	2h 48m Phoenix	PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	90%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 16:20 → PHX 17:41AA 1951	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	71%	45%
United Details →	SAN 19:41 → SFO 21:28UA 2278	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → MRY 23:47UA 5670 · flown by SkyWest	4h 06m	52%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON