Today: DL 2134 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet today DL 2134 SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2191 SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2134 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:20	MSP 12:04	8%	2%	0.1%	94%
DL 2647 Delta Flight history →	SAN 18:10	MSP 23:56	18%	5%	0.8%	90%
DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:48	MSP 17:40	20%	3%	0.1%	94%worse than usual
DL 2191 Delta Flight history →	SAN 15:19	MSP 20:58	22%	4%	0.1%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON