tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:24 am at San Diego)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 10:40, 40% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2325 Southwest Flight history → SAN 09:00 MSY 14:40 25% 4% 0.4% 65%
WN 3339 Southwest SAN 15:15 MSY 21:13 31% 7% 0.4% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 2h 45m St Louis STL 21:50 → MSY 23:49WN 1570 8h 19m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 09:10 → SAT 14:00WN 2499 1h 45m San Antonio SAT 15:45 → MSY 17:20WN 2986 6h 10m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 16:30 → MSY 22:41UA 1244 9h 40m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 2h 38m Seattle SEA 23:13 → MSY 05:49 +1AS 490 10h 14m 97% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:30 → BNA 18:30WN 4147 3h 56m Nashville BNA 22:26 → MSY 00:07 +1WN 663 9h 37m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:10 → MDW 18:10WN 4163 3h 30m Chicago MDW 21:40 → MSY 23:55WN 2836 9h 45m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:38 → LAS 10:00WN 1848 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 12:00 → MSY 17:26WN 2845 6h 48m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:40UA 2165 2h 52m Houston IAH 18:32 → MSY 19:51UA 2140 7h 38m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:55 → DFW 19:15AA 2456 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → MSY 21:46AA 2237 5h 51m 53% 33%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 50m Houston HOU 22:35 → MSY 23:50WN 2055 5h 25m 44% 29%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 17:10 → PHX 18:35WN 2521 50m Phoenix PHX 19:25 → MSY 00:32 +1WN 3379 5h 22m 46% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON