tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:19 am at San Diego)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2189 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 19:00 PAE 22:00 31% 14% 1.7% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:52 → PHX 12:23AS 3023 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 14:23 → PAE 17:23AS 674 6h 31m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 16:13 → LAS 17:39AS 2092 · flown by Horizon 2h 11m Las Vegas LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30AS 366 6h 17m 93% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 16:14 → SFO 17:49AS 2314 · flown by Horizon 2h 18m San Francisco SFO 20:07 → PAE 22:12AS 2083 · flown by Horizon 5h 58m 96% 40%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:15 → LAS 18:41AS 2018 · flown by Horizon 1h 09m Las Vegas LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30AS 366 5h 15m 67% 49%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 16:45 → PHX 18:11AS 3061 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 19:25 → PAE 22:25AS 514 5h 40m 64% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON