tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:57 am at San Diego)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 2955 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet today AA 2955 SAN 06:15 → PHL 14:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1844 SAN 21:42 → PHL 05:54 · 23% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2955 American Flight history → SAN 06:15 PHL 14:40 10% 4% 0.6% 91%
AA 2093 American Flight history → SAN 06:32 PHL 14:50 11% 4% 0.6% 96%
AA 1333 American Flight history → SAN 21:55 PHL 06:13 19% 5% 4.4% 90%
AA 433 American Flight history → SAN 09:21 PHL 17:45 23% 7% 0.6% 82%
AA 1844 American SAN 21:42 PHL 05:54 23% 6% 4.4% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → MDW 12:35WN 3513 1h 05m Chicago MDW 13:40 → PHL 16:45WN 4351 7h 15m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444 1h 05m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic 7h 23m 83% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 1h 35m St Louis STL 20:40 → PHL 23:55WN 3966 7h 25m 88% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON