Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3447 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 3447 SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4578 SAN 16:12 → PHX 17:41 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3447 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:40	PHX 08:10	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 2309 Southwest	SAN 06:58	PHX 08:20	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1212 American	SAN 06:09	PHX 07:33	15%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 681 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:15	PHX 10:40	16%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 4328 Southwest	SAN 09:57	PHX 11:19	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 625 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	PHX 07:54	16%	5%	0.4%	89%
WN 4245 Southwest	SAN 07:58	PHX 09:20	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3524 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:00	PHX 09:20	18%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 2461 American Flight history →	SAN 09:41	PHX 11:09	22%	6%	1.6%	82%
AA 2226 American	SAN 09:56	PHX 11:20	23%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 3668 Southwest	SAN 11:47	PHX 13:09	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4134 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:40	PHX 12:05	25%	4%	0.6%	58%
OO 3144 SkyWest	SAN 07:54	PHX 09:20	27%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 3527 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:45	PHX 23:15	30%	9%	0.6%	47%
AS 3023 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:52	PHX 12:23	34%	11%	1.2%	63%
WN 3526 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:50	PHX 21:15	34%	9%	0.6%	55%
AA 2477 American Flight history →	SAN 12:46	PHX 14:16	35%	8%	1.6%	73%
WN 2109 Southwest	SAN 13:18	PHX 14:40	36%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1851 American	SAN 13:06	PHX 14:30	36%	8%	1.6%	no record
WN 833 Southwest	SAN 15:43	PHX 17:05	37%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2466 American Flight history →	SAN 19:15	PHX 20:44	37%	11%	1.8%	54%
WN 3525 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:45	PHX 16:10	37%	9%	0.6%	45%
WN 765 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:50	PHX 15:15	39%	7%	0.6%	56%
WN 4173 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:55	PHX 20:15	39%	10%	0.6%	27%
WN 4710 Southwest	SAN 18:16	PHX 19:37	40%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2521 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:10	PHX 18:35	41%	10%	0.6%	28%
OO 3309 SkyWest	SAN 13:32	PHX 14:58	41%	10%	0.8%	no record
AS 3061 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 16:45	PHX 18:11	41%	16%	0.8%	57%
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:20	PHX 17:43	41%	9%	1.8%	74%worse than usual
AA 2470 American Flight history →	SAN 16:23	PHX 17:49	41%	10%	1.8%	59%
F9 4578 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:12	PHX 17:41	47%	17%	0.9%	66%worse than usual
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON