Today: one nonstop, OO 3334 at 13:56, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 3334 SAN 13:56 → RDM 16:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3334 SkyWest	SAN 13:56	RDM 16:19	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 2086 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 10:05	RDM 12:25	34%	7%	2.9%	66%
AS 2223 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 19:48	RDM 22:09	63%	24%	1.9%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON