Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: WN 1283 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet today WN 1283 SAN 07:05 → RNO 08:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4875 SAN 18:15 → RNO 19:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1283 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:05	RNO 08:45	10%	3%	0.2%	92%
WN 4159 Southwest	SAN 08:37	RNO 10:17	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 3110 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:30	RNO 11:27	16%	6%	1.0%	96%worse than usual
WN 2593 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 22:00	RNO 23:40	23%	8%	0.7%	20%
WN 2611 Southwest	SAN 14:45	RNO 16:26	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 754 Southwest	SAN 21:45	RNO 23:27	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4954 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:25	RNO 12:00	26%	5%	0.2%	62%
WN 748 Southwest	SAN 17:05	RNO 18:47	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4875 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:15	RNO 19:50	31%	11%	0.7%	30%
AS 2233 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:16	RNO 22:04	53%	27%	9.1%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON