tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:57 pm at San Diego); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, OO 3104 at 22:33, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3104 SkyWest SAN 22:33 SBA 23:43 28% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352 3h 15m Las Vegas LAS 22:45 → SBA 00:11 +1WN 4612 6h 06m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 6h 36m 98% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 19:00 → LAS 20:25WN 4160 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → SBA 23:35WN 373 4h 35m 85% 61%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:23 → PHX 17:49AA 2470 3h 25m Phoenix PHX 21:14 → SBA 22:57AA 1855 6h 34m 93% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 04m 68% 61%
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 4h 18m 66% 49%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 17:20 → DEN 20:40WN 4151 55m Denver DEN 21:35 → SBA 23:15WN 1765 5h 55m 29% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON