Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3536 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3536 SAN 06:35 → SJC 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4186 SAN 19:30 → SJC 21:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3536 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:35	SJC 08:15	4%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 4914 Southwest	SAN 06:30	SJC 08:01	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2768 Southwest	SAN 08:18	SJC 09:49	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3537 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:15	SJC 09:50	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 4261 Southwest	SAN 09:33	SJC 11:04	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4509 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:30	SJC 11:00	12%	3%	0.7%	93%
AS 3359 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 07:48	SJC 09:26	13%	5%	0.7%	90%
OO 864 SkyWest	SAN 08:05	SJC 09:43	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2121 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:30	SJC 11:55	16%	3%	0.7%	60%
WN 1181 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:25	SJC 13:55	20%	5%	0.7%	71%
AS 3429 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 12:59	SJC 14:38	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
WN 3538 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:30	SJC 15:00	23%	5%	0.7%	62%
AS 3068 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:37	SJC 19:11	23%	8%	0.8%	70%
AS 3029 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 16:26	SJC 18:00	25%	7%	0.7%	71%
AS 1624 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 22:25	SJC 23:55	25%	6%	0.7%	79%
WN 3542 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:00	SJC 22:30	27%	7%	0.7%	54%
WN 3539 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:30	SJC 15:55	28%	6%	0.7%	54%
WN 5088 Southwest	SAN 15:20	SJC 16:45	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3541 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:05	SJC 18:30	30%	8%	0.7%	56%
WN 4185 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:05	SJC 19:35	30%	9%	0.7%	56%
WN 3540 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:10	SJC 17:35	30%	8%	0.7%	31%
WN 4186 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:30	SJC 21:00	30%	9%	0.7%	26%
AS 2091 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:55	SJC 11:24	49%	12%	1.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON