Today: DL 1073 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet today DL 1073 SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3556 SAT 15:40 → ATL 19:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1073 Delta Flight history →	SAT 05:20	ATL 08:46	6%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 1066 Delta Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ATL 10:07	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 998 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:40	ATL 11:06	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	SAT 14:35	ATL 18:11	13%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	SAT 16:15	ATL 19:50	17%	3%	0.8%	78%
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	SAT 18:16	ATL 21:54	18%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	SAT 10:38	ATL 14:05	20%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 1121 Delta Flight history →	SAT 12:04	ATL 15:39	23%	5%	0.9%	77%
WN 1185 Southwest	SAT 16:45	ATL 20:24	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3556 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 15:40	ATL 19:05	25%	5%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON