Today: WN 2327 at 11:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet today WN 2327 SAT 11:20 → BNA 13:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4193 SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2327 Southwest	SAT 11:20	BNA 13:37	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 481 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 13:50	BNA 16:05	20%	4%	0.1%	54%
WN 3700 Southwest	SAT 16:40	BNA 18:57	28%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 4193 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:25	BNA 19:40	31%	8%	0.2%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON