Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:07 pm at San Antonio); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:03, 61% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAT 19:03 → PHX 19:33AA 2973	2h 12m Phoenix	PHX 21:45 → BOS 05:45 +1AA 2701	9h 42m	89%	61%
United Details →	SAT 17:32 → ORD 20:33UA 1316	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	6h 42m	79%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAT 18:16 → ATL 21:54DL 1465	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 04m	62%	42%
Southwest Details →	SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193	55m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → BOS 00:15 +1WN 459	5h 50m	56%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON