Today: AA 1119 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet today AA 1119 SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2889 SAT 11:56 → CLT 15:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1119 American Flight history →	SAT 06:01	CLT 10:00	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 3297 American Flight history →	SAT 09:40	CLT 13:31	14%	7%	0.7%	87%
AA 2487 American Flight history →	SAT 09:55	CLT 13:52	14%	7%	0.7%	89%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	SAT 17:47	CLT 21:47	19%	4%	1.6%	72%
AA 2934 American Flight history →	SAT 17:58	CLT 21:44	22%	4%	1.6%	81%
AA 2889 American	SAT 11:56	CLT 15:45	22%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON