Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3617 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3617 SAT 05:26 → DAL 06:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1338 SAT 20:05 → DAL 21:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3617 Southwest	SAT 05:26	DAL 06:41	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4512 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:40	DAL 06:55	3%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 1353 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 06:35	DAL 07:45	5%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 1679 Southwest	SAT 10:30	DAL 11:45	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 09:45	DAL 10:55	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 257 Southwest	SAT 12:20	DAL 13:35	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4195 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 11:45	DAL 12:55	13%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 4299 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 15:10	DAL 16:25	16%	3%	0.6%	54%
WN 4539 Southwest	SAT 13:55	DAL 15:10	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4553 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 21:40	DAL 22:50	17%	5%	0.6%	72%
WN 1316 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 18:00	DAL 19:15	19%	4%	0.6%	42%
WN 1338 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 20:05	DAL 21:15	19%	5%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON