Today: WN 4042 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet today WN 4042 SAT 10:45 → DEN 12:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 160 SAT 13:40 → DEN 14:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4042 Southwest	SAT 10:45	DEN 12:31	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3711 Southwest	SAT 11:45	DEN 13:02	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1575 Southwest	SAT 18:45	DEN 20:31	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:53	DEN 10:11	14%	5%	0.2%	86%
WN 1090 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 12:25	DEN 13:40	15%	3%	0.2%	79%
WN 3568 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 18:30	DEN 20:00	16%	3%	0.5%	53%
WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 09:05	DEN 10:15	16%	2%	0.2%	81%
F9 2355 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 20:13	DEN 21:52	18%	5%	0.7%	87%
F9 3707 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 19:39	DEN 21:14	19%	5%	0.7%	78%
WN 4678 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 14:10	DEN 15:25	20%	4%	0.1%	72%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	21%	7%	0.2%	84%
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	25%	7%	0.2%	76%
WN 160 Southwest	SAT 13:40	DEN 14:58	26%	4%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON