tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:48 am at San Antonio); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2598 Delta Flight history → SAT 16:00 DTW 20:09 16% 6% 0.2% 85%
DL 1475 Delta SAT 15:57 DTW 19:55 18% 5% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 21:02 → DTW 23:48DL 8805 8h 22m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAT 14:10 → PHL 18:55AA 2489 3h 24m Philadelphia PHL 22:19 → DTW 00:16 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA 9h 06m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:25 → ORD 16:27UA 2824 3h 20m Chicago ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426 7h 54m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:39 → DEN 14:55UA 1007 2h 52m Denver DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220 8h 04m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651 8h 09m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:04 → ATL 15:39DL 1121 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 7h 09m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:53 → ORD 16:39UA 2243 3h 28m Chicago ORD 20:07 → DTW 22:26UA 768 7h 33m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAT 13:44 → DFW 15:04AA 4084 · flown by Envoy 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108 7h 52m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:32 → ORD 20:33UA 1316 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic 5h 22m 54% 47%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:20 → MDW 17:55WN 3584 55m Chicago MDW 18:50 → DTW 21:05WN 4200 4h 45m 62% 47%
AmericanDetails → SAT 17:35 → DFW 18:59AA 3311 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:52 → DTW 23:28AA 313 4h 53m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON