Today: WN 4582 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet today WN 4582 SAT 06:05 → ELP 06:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1822 SAT 21:15 → ELP 21:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4582 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 06:05	ELP 06:35	5%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 3713 Southwest	SAT 06:45	ELP 07:26	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3749 Southwest	SAT 21:15	ELP 21:56	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1822 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 21:15	ELP 21:45	22%	6%	0.5%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON