Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3716 at 20:45, 24%.

Safest bet today WN 3716 SAT 20:45 → HOU 21:53 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3715 SAT 13:11 → HOU 14:19 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3716 Southwest	SAT 20:45	HOU 21:53	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3573 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 18:30	HOU 19:40	30%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 3566 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 12:50	HOU 13:55	33%	6%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
WN 3715 Southwest	SAT 13:11	HOU 14:19	35%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON