tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 471 United Flight history → SAT 07:00 IAD 11:27 7% 2% 0.3% 95%
UA 2250 United Flight history → SAT 12:01 IAD 16:28 12% 5% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 1h 01m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 46m 94% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 29m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 6h 32m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 21m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 9h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 8h 06m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:00 → DTW 20:09DL 2598 1h 33m Detroit DTW 21:42 → IAD 23:16DL 1902 6h 16m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 26m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 1h 07m Houston IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43UA 1373 5h 25m 74% 54%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:35 → EWR 18:30UA 1261 59m Newark EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677 6h 25m 58% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON