Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1662 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1662 SAT 05:50 → LAS 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 3417 SAT 21:32 → LAS 22:19 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1662 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:50	LAS 06:30	3%	1%	0.2%	81%
WN 4368 Southwest	SAT 06:00	LAS 06:51	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2343 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 10:55	LAS 11:40	12%	2%	0.5%	74%
WN 1853 Southwest	SAT 11:25	LAS 12:16	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3719 Southwest	SAT 14:20	LAS 15:11	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4345 Southwest	SAT 16:35	LAS 17:26	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3575 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 14:40	LAS 15:20	22%	4%	0.5%	60%
WN 963 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 20:35	LAS 21:20	22%	5%	0.6%	40%
WN 3576 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:20	LAS 18:10	23%	5%	0.6%	36%
F9 3419 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 12:34	LAS 13:36	25%	9%	0.8%	71%
F9 3417 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 21:32	LAS 22:19	28%	10%	1.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON