Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:06 am at San Antonio); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 6307 SAT 15:09 → LAX 16:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 2525 SAT 15:55 → LAX 17:08 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 6307 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 15:09	LAX 16:27	16%	6%	0.2%	89%
DL 1471 Delta	SAT 16:47	LAX 17:56	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 2588 Delta Flight history →	SAT 16:46	LAX 17:51	21%	5%	0.2%	88%
WN 404 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 13:05	LAX 14:10	21%	4%	0.2%	75%
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 16:33	LAX 17:49	23%	6%	0.2%	85%
WN 2525 Southwest	SAT 15:55	LAX 17:08	24%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON