Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2770 at 05:00, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 2770 SAT 05:00 → MCO 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 856 SAT 17:35 → MCO 21:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2770 Southwest	SAT 05:00	MCO 08:43	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4608 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:00	MCO 08:45	4%	1%	0.5%	98%
F9 1654 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 09:51	MCO 13:43	19%	8%	0.9%	77%
WN 1188 Southwest	SAT 13:05	MCO 16:52	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 2690 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:45	MCO 21:30	33%	12%	0.8%	54%
WN 856 Southwest	SAT 17:35	MCO 21:19	33%	11%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON