tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:27 am at San Antonio); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 1h 37m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 8h 09m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 8h 04m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:53 → ORD 16:38UA 2243 1h 27m Chicago ORD 18:05 → MIA 22:27UA 2180 7h 34m 91% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 13:50 → BNA 16:05WN 481 3h 10m Nashville BNA 19:15 → MIA 22:40WN 4575 7h 50m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → SAT 13:32 → ORD 16:38AA 2486 2h 48m Chicago ORD 19:26 → MIA 23:35AA 1159 9h 03m 95% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 09:05 → DEN 10:15WN 1577 2h 35m Denver DEN 12:50 → MIA 18:42WN 3404 8h 37m 100% 75%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 09:45 → DAL 10:55WN 3563 3h 00m Dallas DAL 13:55 → MIA 17:45WN 2929 7h 00m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:42 → IAH 10:49UA 753 1h 11m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 5h 05m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 13:32 → ORD 16:38AA 2486 48m Chicago ORD 17:26 → MIA 21:35AA 2323 7h 03m 74% 58%
AmericanDetails → SAT 16:20 → DFW 17:38AA 1961 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:40 → MIA 22:37AA 2050 5h 17m 72% 50%
AmericanDetails → SAT 14:10 → PHL 18:55AA 2489 48m Philadelphia PHL 19:43 → MIA 22:33AA 2132 7h 23m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON