tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:15 am at San Antonio)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 3559 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3559 Southwest SAT 06:55 MSY 08:35 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2986 Southwest Flight history → SAT 15:45 MSY 17:20 22% 5% 0.7% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:20 → HOU 06:30WN 1315 1h 40m Houston HOU 08:10 → MSY 09:30WN 2096 4h 10m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 3h 16m 91% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 16:50 → STL 19:00WN 3590 2h 50m St Louis STL 21:50 → MSY 23:49WN 1570 6h 59m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:16DL 3157 6h 36m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:35 → DAL 07:45WN 1353 3h 12m Dallas DAL 10:57 → MSY 12:35WN 4831 6h 00m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 11:00 → MCI 12:55WN 1432 2h 40m Kansas City MCI 15:35 → MSY 17:35WN 2577 6h 35m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 09:45 → DAL 10:55WN 3563 2h 00m Dallas DAL 12:55 → MSY 14:25WN 3790 4h 40m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:44 → IAH 13:08UA 1282 3h 32m Houston IAH 16:40 → MSY 17:59UA 6173 · flown by Mesa 6h 15m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAT 18:30 → HOU 19:40WN 3573 50m Houston HOU 20:30 → MSY 21:50WN 2100 3h 20m 72% 53%
AmericanDetails → SAT 17:35 → DFW 18:59AA 3311 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → MSY 21:46AA 2237 4h 11m 75% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:45 → MCO 21:30WN 2690 1h 10m Orlando MCO 22:40 → MSY 23:40WN 2765 5h 55m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON