Today: AA 4176 at 18:57 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–39%.

Safest bet today AA 4176 SAT 18:57 → ORD 22:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1916 SAT 15:24 → ORD 17:44 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 18:57	ORD 22:07	15%	4%	0.5%	76%
YX 4488 Republic	SAT 18:38	ORD 21:31	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2801 United	SAT 17:26	ORD 20:14	26%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 1316 United Flight history →	SAT 17:32	ORD 20:33	26%	6%	0.4%	58%
AA 1916 American	SAT 15:24	ORD 17:44	39%	9%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON