tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:36 am at San Antonio); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1456 Southwest SAT 19:30 SAN 20:30 30% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1402 Southwest Flight history → SAT 20:10 SAN 20:55 33% 6% 0.6% 45%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:03 → SLC 19:59DL 2685 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 7h 47m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 7h 27m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 09:05 → DEN 10:15WN 1577 2h 40m Denver DEN 12:55 → SAN 14:15WN 3503 7h 10m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 3h 19m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 8h 02m 97% 67%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193 2h 25m Nashville BNA 22:05 → SAN 00:14 +1WN 709 8h 49m 95% 66%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 8h 42m 93% 66%
AmericanDetails → SAT 08:41 → PHX 09:16AA 3906 · flown by Envoy 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:56 → SAN 12:30AA 1851 5h 49m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 2h 34m Houston IAH 19:59 → SAN 21:39UA 1911 7h 21m 91% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 19:02 → PHX 19:33AA 2973 47m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 4h 32m 62% 36%
AlaskaDetails → SAT 16:44 → SEA 19:10AS 494 57m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:53AS 254 8h 09m 59% 34%
AmericanDetails → SAT 15:46 → PHX 16:10AA 2495 53m Phoenix PHX 17:03 → SAN 18:29AA 1862 4h 43m 66% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON