tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:30 pm at San Antonio); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:35, is the safest bet: 41% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 494 Alaska Flight history → SAT 16:44 SEA 19:10 49% 11% 1.0% 73%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:03 → SLC 19:59DL 2685 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998 7h 56m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:05 → MSP 20:58DL 2675 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 7h 53m 88% 69%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 11h 24m 98% 62%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 8h 35m 98% 61%
AmericanDetails → SAT 15:42 → PHX 16:20AA 2375 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 82% 60%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:46 → LAX 17:51DL 2588 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 21:15 → SEA 00:03 +1DL 2616 9h 17m 87% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:20 → LAS 18:10WN 3576 4h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963 9h 35m 100% 56%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:55 → SEA 22:42UA 2456 8h 24m 88% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963 6h 20m 57% 32%
AmericanDetails → SAT 20:23 → DFW 21:44AA 499 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 6h 34m 61% 29%
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323 46m Houston IAH 19:50 → SEA 22:16UA 2341 6h 19m 47% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON