tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:39 pm at San Antonio); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 20:35, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1210 United SAT 18:52 SFO 21:02 26% 5% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:03 → SLC 19:59DL 2685 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 7h 49m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 10h 21m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323 2h 55m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 8h 08m 97% 72%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:20 → LAS 18:10WN 3576 3h 20m Las Vegas LAS 21:30 → SFO 23:11WN 1640 7h 51m 100% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 22:55 → SFO 00:35 +1WN 2784 6h 00m 94% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:20 → MDW 17:55WN 3584 3h 30m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SFO 23:50WN 4327 10h 30m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → SAT 15:13 → IAH 15:48UA 753 2h 09m Houston IAH 17:57 → SFO 20:01UA 2607 6h 48m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 8h 21m 98% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:16 → ATL 21:54DL 1465 46m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 8h 20m 51% 39%
AmericanDetails → SAT 15:46 → PHX 16:10AA 2495 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 17:25 → SFO 19:33AA 2421 5h 47m 65% 35%
AmericanDetails → SAT 19:03 → PHX 19:34AA 2973 49m Phoenix PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23AA 686 5h 20m 55% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON