Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at San Antonio); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1507 Delta	SAT 18:01	SLC 19:54	21%	5%	0.1%	no record
DL 2685 Delta Flight history →	SAT 18:03	SLC 19:59	21%	6%	0.1%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323	1h 21m Houston	IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43UA 2157	5h 46m	89%	57%
Southwest Details →	SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	5h 45m	92%	55%
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:00 → DAL 19:15WN 1316	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 21:20 → SLC 23:05WN 952	6h 05m	86%	43%
American Details →	SAT 19:08 → DFW 20:28AA 3878 · flown by Envoy	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:06 → SLC 00:01 +1AA 2507	5h 53m	87%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963	57m Las Vegas	LAS 22:17 → SLC 00:42 +1WN 2425	5h 07m	53%	33%
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:30 → DEN 20:00WN 3568	53m Denver	DEN 20:53 → SLC 22:23WN 4270	4h 53m	63%	33%
American Details →	SAT 19:03 → PHX 19:33AA 2973	47m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SLC 23:03AA 4921 · flown by SkyWest	5h 00m	46%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON