Today: DL 5803 at 14:50 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–35%.

Safest bet today DL 5803 SAV 14:50 → BOS 17:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 150 SAV 15:44 → BOS 18:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5803 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SAV 14:50	BOS 17:30	24%	9%	1.9%	73%
DL 5647 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SAV 15:25	BOS 17:56	28%	10%	1.9%	65%
B6 150 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 15:44	BOS 18:15	35%	16%	1.6%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON