Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1110 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1110 SAV 07:20 → BWI 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1290 SAV 19:55 → BWI 21:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1110 Southwest Flight history →	SAV 07:20	BWI 09:00	5%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 3737 Southwest	SAV 08:10	BWI 10:04	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3594 Southwest Flight history →	SAV 10:55	BWI 12:35	11%	3%	0.9%	85%
WN 4394 Southwest	SAV 14:15	BWI 16:08	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 274 Southwest	SAV 19:35	BWI 21:30	23%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1290 Southwest Flight history →	SAV 19:55	BWI 21:40	24%	6%	0.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON