tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:23 pm at Savannah); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:53, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAV 16:53 → ORD 18:30UA 291 3h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 8h 00m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAV 18:22 → MIA 19:55AA 3782 · flown by Envoy 2h 05m Miami MIA 22:00 → EWR 00:59 +1AA 2008 6h 37m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAV 17:05 → ATL 18:19DL 3014 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527 5h 24m 88% 62%
DeltaDetails → SAV 19:07 → ATL 20:34DL 3112 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 5h 51m 85% 62%
DeltaDetails → SAV 17:16 → MSP 19:15DL 2574 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 6h 40m 77% 60%
DeltaDetails → SAV 18:10 → DTW 20:27DL 3651 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 15m 76% 59%
UnitedDetails → SAV 17:15 → IAH 18:28UA 6185 · flown by Mesa 1h 27m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 7h 22m 79% 55%
UnitedDetails → SAV 19:11 → IAD 21:12UA 6165 · flown by Mesa 1h 17m Dulles IAD 22:29 → EWR 23:59UA 1997 4h 48m 78% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON