Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 3695 SAV 14:14 → IAD 16:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2057 SAV 12:05 → IAD 13:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3695 Republic	SAV 14:14	IAD 16:18	12%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 2057 United Flight history →	SAV 12:05	IAD 13:45	19%	5%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
UA 6366 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 09:50	IAD 11:37	8%	4%	1.2%	92%
UA 6165 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 19:15	IAD 21:02	14%	6%	1.4%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON