Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 142 at 10:56 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Safest bet that day B6 142 SAV 10:56 → JFK 12:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 342 SAV 14:24 → JFK 16:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 142 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 10:56	JFK 12:59	19%	6%	1.6%	85%
B6 342 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 14:24	JFK 16:30	30%	16%	2.1%	52%
DL 5032 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 07:50	JFK 10:02	9%	5%	4.2%	91%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:47	JFK 13:59	16%	7%	4.1%	84%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 18:14	JFK 20:39	25%	12%	9.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON