Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3110 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3110 SAV 05:58 → MIA 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3782 SAV 18:22 → MIA 19:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3110 American	SAV 05:58	MIA 07:35	7%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3682 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAV 06:00	MIA 07:34	9%	4%	0.8%	97%
MQ 4166 Envoy	SAV 19:58	MIA 21:35	26%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 3782 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAV 18:22	MIA 19:55	28%	9%	1.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON