Today: AA 5570 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–37%.

Safest bet today AA 5570 SAV 07:45 → PHL 09:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2303 SAV 19:11 → PHL 21:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5570 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:45	PHL 09:50	11%	5%	1.4%	96%
OH 5204 PSA	SAV 11:57	PHL 14:10	17%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 5621 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 11:17	PHL 13:19	20%	7%	1.5%	76%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	SAV 18:31	PHL 20:35	35%	11%	2.0%	59%
AA 2303 American	SAV 19:11	PHL 21:15	37%	11%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON